Mark Twain once said, “I’ve suffered a great many catastrophes in my life. Most of them never happened.”
However, it is quite probable that the iconic writer would rephrase his famous quotation if he was living in his beloved United States right now. Some might even argue that calling President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in power a catastrophe might be an understatement.
But an understatement or not, this is the reality the world, including the Canadian seafood industry, is faced with.
After a yo-yo of off-again, on-again, off-again threats, promises and innuendo, on April 2, 2025, President Trump finally announced that Canada will be spared from his new global tariffs, including the 25 per cent duty on Canadian seafood imports.
For now, seafood imports from our region will still come under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which secures tariff-free trade for qualifying Canadian goods.
The various, lucrative spring fisheries in Atlantic Canada are shielded from retaliatory measures and will proceed — but hardly as normal. The tariff decision delivered relief and stability — at least for the time being and we all know how quickly the messaging from the White House can change — but for now — there is a sense of normality.
As you are aware, this aura of paranoia and impending doom is being felt by the seafood industry in the U.S. as well.
Seafood commentator John Sackton has said that mass hysteria has taken over policy making in the U.S.
“But it is the lack of policy that is killing businesses. No country knows what Trump wants. Except, like a mafia don, he wants each one to come to him with an offer of some gift and then he might relent. But he might not. Who in their right mind would invest in the U.S. without understanding what is whim, what is fantasy and what is permanent?”
Sackton speculated that despite the Canadian seafood tariff reprieve from the President, the industry is going to suffer anyway — on both sides of the border.
“Lobster is highly sensitive to the overall economy. With consumer sentiment in freefall and fears of higher prices, the likelihood of a strong summer tourist season in Maine and elsewhere is dim. Lobster demand will be weak. Add the fact that U.S. lobsters are going to be hit with increasing tariffs by China, and Canadian lobsters are already under a 25 per cent tariff. About 30 per cent of the total lobster supply in the U.S. and Canada has gone to China. A significant portion will be looking for a new home,” Sackton explained.
“It is not the actual tariff numbers that kill you. It is the torn fabric of international trade. Seafood, as the most internationally traded seafood commodity, will suffer greatly.”
For now, fishermen can continue to harvest lobster and snow crab, relatively unfettered by turbulent geopolitics. But how long will that last? That is the multi-billion-dollar question.
The Canadian and U.S. administrations have discussed a meeting after the April 28 federal election to begin to discuss comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship. With CUSMA set to be reviewed in 2026, it is expected that both Canada and the U.S. will discuss various trade-related concerns including tariffs, digital service taxes, supply management and foreign investment restrictions.
However, everyone knows that we are currently muddling our way through the first chapter in the book Trump 2.0, with many twists, turns and turmoil left to come over the remaining 45 months. This book is going to be a long and painful read.
