Donald Trump has once again been named the president-elect of the United States and with his ascendant presidency comes a looming threat with the potential to throw Canada-U.S. trade into turmoil.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 per cent tariff on all products coming into the United States and its ridiculous open borders,” said Trump.
Right or wrong, the prospect of Canadian exports to its largest trading partner being kneecapped by Trump’s tariffs could very well come true. Caught in the middle of this incoming tariff war is Canadian seafood — a lifeblood of many coastal communities — but one that may go unnoticed by the federal government as the trade of lumber, automotives, oil and many other big-ticket exports take up the lion’s share of future negotiations.
With the prospect of Canada’s largest trading partner passing on Nova Scotia lobster or Newfoundland and Labrador snow crab in 2025, the question remains: Where will we find a buyer?
According to market analyst John Sackton, our two fallback options — China and Europe — likely aren’t in much of a state to be taking our excess shellfish, either.
“China has become less reliable for Canadian lobster and much more price sensitive and the only way exporters have been able to maintain a significant amount to China is to reduce the price,” said Sackton. “If you look at the year-over-year price of lobster in China, it’s much lower in 2024 than it has been in past years.”
International trade may not be as strong as in recent years and much of this burden will likely fall on harvesters, processors and those employed by both. These industries, however, would be hard-pressed to simply leave their catch in the water and skip out on a paycheck altogether. While some trade is still likely to happen without or without tariffs, it will fall to Canadians to help their countrymen through uncertain times.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, “To everyone who wants to show their support, buy Canadian. Pick up some Canadian cheese to help a local dairy farmer, have a fish fry, or buy Canadian lobster. Not only will it taste great, it will help the people who keep food on our plates.”
Although Trudeau may be less popular than he once was one American election cycle ago, his words stand the test of time.
When Canadian consumers go to the grocery store, taking the extra time to check labels to ensure the product they’re consuming is made in Canada will help keep a roof over a Canadian head. Opting to eat Canadian seafood instead of U.S. beef will, in the same token, serve to keep the Canadian economy afloat in these uncertain economic times.
As former U.S. President John F. Kennedy once said, “A rising tide lifts all boats.”
