Forecasters with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 30 per cent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal season, and a 10 per cent chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70 per cent confidence in these ranges.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.
Last year, 17 to 25 named storms were predicted, said Bob Robichaud, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
“We did get a very active season” with 18 named storms including 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes in 2024, said Robichaud, adding only one storm entered the Canadian response zone as a tropical storm; Ernesto in August.
“We did have some indirect impacts from storms like Debby that enhanced rainfall over parts of southern Québec that caused extensive flooding.”
Robichaud said in 2024, meteorologists were “looking at near record water temperatures in the Atlantic which really help fuel these types of storms… This year what stands out is the record warmth that we saw last year in the Atlantic is no longer there. This year waters in the Atlantic are somewhat warmer than the long-term average but closer to that average than they were last year.”
The percentage of hurricane-related storms that reached Canada last year was low, said Robichaud. “Overall, on average we typically get 30 to 40 per cent of the storms that form in the Atlantic and find their way into our response zone, so we can count on two to four hurricanes or tropical storms that can enter our response zone in any given year,” he said.
On average, three or four tropical cyclone events impact Canada each hurricane season, with one or two making impact on Canadian soil and two or three threatening offshore waters. Hurricanes are typically of greater concern later in the season, when Canadian waters reach their peak warmth.
Factors that influenced NOAA’s predictions for 2025 include continued ENSO-neutral conditions (El Ni-ño-Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. “All of these elements tend to favour tropical storm formation,” said NOAA.
“The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.”
Hurricane Fiona in 2022 was the most costly, extreme weather event ever recorded in Atlantic Canada in terms of insured damages, estimated at over $800 million.
There has been an increase in Category 3 to Category 5 hurricanes over the past four decades and with climate change, the intensity of the strongest hurricanes is expected to increase.
Meteorologists at the Canadian Hurricane Centre conduct 24/7 monitoring and hazard prediction year-round. They focus on storms with the potential to affect Canada and its waters, track storm paths, predict intensity, and issue warnings. They also provide information to help provincial and territorial partners and emergency management officials to lessen the impacts of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in Canadian communities.
Safety planning tips, track maps and other useful information can be found online at Canada.ca/hurricanes; weather.gc.ca; or by downloading the WeatherCAN app (available for Android and iOS devices).
The list of names for the 2025 hurricane season is:
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
