Meteorologists are predicting a slightly below average hurricane season in the Atlantic this year, calling for between eight to 14 named storms.
An average hurricane season in the Atlantic has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. Statistically, there is a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 per cent chance of an above-normal season and a 55 per cent chance of a below-normal season, said forecasters.
“You can’t always go by simply the number of storms in terms of trying to determine the characteristics of a hurricane season. It only takes one to have a very impactful season,” said Bob Robichaud, Warning Preparedness Meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Hurricane Centre, when presenting the outlook for the upcoming 2026 hurricane season on May 21.
“When we talk about a forecast with low activity, people start to let their guard down. As we saw with Fiona in 2022, we only had one landfall hurricane that season. It only takes one and that’s a perfect example,” said Robichaud.
When it comes to forecasting a hurricane season, “one of the first things we look at is water temperatures. In the Atlantic right now there’s pretty close to average if you take into account most of the tropical Atlantic. It’s a little bit colder in the east, a little bit warmer in the west. It will kind of even it out but we do expect water temperatures to increase over the course of the summer and become average when we reach later in the season. What a lot of people are talking about now is the emergence of this El Niño, which is defined by a patch of warm water in the equatorial Pacific and we expect we will be in El Niño conditions by the time we get into the peak of hurricane season, so essentially, we’re talking about this El Niño developing over the next few weeks to couple months. When we have an El Niño situation, when that little rectangle in the Pacific is warmer than average, that creates more wind shear downwind from that area, which in this case would be over the tropical Atlantic, specifically the western tropical Atlantic. So, when we have more wind shear, we tend to have fewer hurricanes and that is going to play into the forecast for this upcoming hurricane season,” said Robichaud.
“The major driver for storms in the Atlantic is more than wind shear. It’s amazing how wind shear can really dampen the formation or intensification of a hurricane even when everything else is perfect for a storm to develop. This little bit of added wind shear will really cut down on the development. That really is the main driver when you look at El Niño, is that wind shear component in the Atlantic. That results in fewer storms. When you look at the entire season, that wind shear ebbs and flows, increases and decreases. In those periods of time when it decreases, that’s the opportunity for a storm to develop, depending on the steering currents at that time frame and when a storm does develop, we can still get an impactful storm here in Canada. Even in an El Niño year, you can still have major hurricanes develop in the Atlantic. We’ve seen numerous examples,” Robichaud said.
It takes a lot of hot weather to warm up the North Atlantic, said Robichaud.
“When we get a warm spring, the water warms up a little faster. The water off our coast is cold compared to the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico, but what happens when the water is warmer it takes longer for that storm to weaken. Those are the conditions that can create landfall.”
Then there’s the Gulf Stream.
“Sometimes what we see can happen, we seen with Juan in 2003, the warm edges break off the Gulf Stream and migrate northward. If we have a tropical storm moving up at the same time, that water is going to be significantly warmer than average and can maintain that storm for a longer period of time,” explained Robichaud.
Typically, on average 35 to 40 per cent of the storms that form in the Atlantic find their way into the Canadian Hurricane Centre response zone, said Robichaud. Typically, one or two would have had some recent minor impacts with respect to waves or rain or perhaps more significant impacts over land. “It depends on the weather of the day when the storms develop,” he said.
Hurricane season started on June 1 and runs until the end of November, with the bulk of the activity occurring in August, September and October.
“Whatever the forecast, everyone should be prepared. Regardless of the forecast. It’s only that one storm that can really make it a bad year, if that storm hits you in your backyard,” said Robichaud.
“The main thing is to know the risks, develop a plan, have an emergency kit ready and then always have a way of monitoring the forecast changes over time. Typically, the first few forecasts are the worst forecasts for hurricanes. They are more accurate once the storm is well organized and it takes a while for a storm to get well organized, so a lot of earlier forecasts can change significantly,” advised Robichaud.
The list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
