As we hurtle towards yet another new year, the cyclical nature of the fishery plays on the minds of many stakeholders in the industry.
Many wonder if their respective season will prove to be more lucrative than the last, whether they’ll be hampered by new regulations and how the species they fish are faring as we go into the future.
For lobster, it seems like the short-term outlook is a positive one.
It’s no secret that waters are warming. In the Gulf of St. Lawrence, for example, temperatures at depths of 300 metres reached seven degrees Celsius for the first time in recorded history. Meanwhile to the south, the Gulf of Maine is averaging between 8.5–10 degrees Celsius at comparable depths since 2011. In fact, according to the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, the Gulf is warming faster than 99 per cent of the world’s oceans.
What may be the misfortune of the Maine lobsterman is shaping up to be hugely beneficial to lobster harvesters in Atlantic Canada, as seen by Department of Fisheries and Oceans research scientist Darrell Mullowney in the Newfoundland and Labrador region.
“I think what we have right now that has been steady increase for the last decade is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of habitat potential for lobster in Newfoundland and Labrador. We’re seeing it on the south and west, and that’s been pretty obvious for a long time. There’s a bigger resource for the fishery happening off the northeast coast of this island than most people would realize, as well. Lobster is becoming more habitual off the northeast coast, kind of in the area where shrimp pulled out of. Even around the Avalon — Avalon bays tend to be real cold and even those are warming and seeing lobster come, too. So, it is becoming broad spread.”
“I do truly think that we need to start thinking about the lobster a little bit more as becoming the focus with the way things are setting up right now, with a fairly bleak outlook for crab and a fairly promising outlook for lobster.”
The story in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is much of the same, with lobster from across the southern border moving into more favourable waters, as well as some in the southern Gulf moving into the northern Gulf as waters warm. This glut of lobsters coming towards Canada’s lobster hot spot will, for a time, continue to be a boon to the lucrative lobster industry.
So, as we roll into 2025 and beyond, Atlantic Canada can expect to keep the good times rolling and the crustacean dollars flowing. But all good times come to an end and all empires eventually crumble — even the ones built on the backs of lobsters. As we look onwards to the mid-21st century, the warming waters that may have given Atlantic Canadians a boost could set them back millions, if not billions of dollars.
By 2050, ocean modelling by Fisheries and Oceans Canada predicts that bottom water temperatures in the Gulf is set to increase, and with it comes the rest of the Gulf.
What was once a paradise for this cold-water species could become increasingly hot, leaving them with no choice but to move even further north and once again trading the fortune they bring with them to another community of harvesters.
This is, however, conjecture. Not all the lobster up and abandoned the people of Maine the minute the thermometer hit a magical number and neither will that happen to Atlantic Canadians. But we do know the sea is changing and will continue to change, and not likely in anyone’s favour.
So, it may be worth utilizing these good times in the lobster fishery to prepare for uncertain news down the road.
