Everyone is familiar with Winston Churchill’s famous quote “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
The late British Prime Minister was of course referring to the country of Russia at the time, but the present-day situation with mackerel might also be described in such perplexing terms.
What is going on with mackerel stocks? This is not just a conundrum being experienced here in Atlantic Canada, but in fisheries across the globe.
Here at home, the fishery for this sought-after pelagic has all been pretty much shut down by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). Last May, DFO Minister Joanne Thompson announced a continuation of the closure of the Atlantic mackerel commercial fishery for 2025 and 2026, while allowing a bait fishery of 440 tonnes.
Across The Pond, this past fall, international scientists recommended that the fishing of mackerel in 2026 should be cut by more than 70 per cent in the Northeast Atlantic to help prevent the collapse of fish stocks.
The latest advice from the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommended a catch limit of 174,357 tonnes be set in 2026 for all mackerel stocks in the region and its adjacent waters.
It would mark a 70 per cent reduction from the catch limit of 576,958 tonnes that ICES recommended for 2025. But it also would come as a 77 per cent reduction on the 755,143 tonnes that the scientists estimate would be caught in 2025.
However, there has consistently been a disconnect between science advise and actual commercial mackerel quotas. Since 2010, mackerel quotas have been set an average 39 per cent higher than those given in the scientific advice.
The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) stated that there is a lack of a unified management plan between countries to prevent overfishing.
“Without urgent action, mackerel stocks are at very real risk of collapse. The science is clear and now, after years of inaction, governments must put aside political deadlock and work together to agree to quotas in line with scientific evidence for the long-term sustainability of this critically important species. The MSC has been calling for action for years, urging decision-makers to heed the science before it’s too late for this vital stock. Sustainable alternatives are available, with some brands already choosing to switch, but lasting change will only come if ministers act now to safeguard the future of this iconic species and the fisheries and communities that depend on it,” the MSC reported.
However, members of the harvesting community have accused conservation groups of taking an over-precautionary approach when formalizing its advice.
The Scottish Fishermen’s Federation said “While we recognize ICES’ authority and expertise on leading on the complex science behind the stock assessments, we are increasingly concerned about what seems to be a growing trend of ICES stepping out of their remit of providing scientific advice and stepping into fisheries management, which is not their role — that is for governments. The over-precautionary approach being used by ICES when formalizing their advice appears to be them seeking to influence governments on how stocks should be managed. Managers must take into consideration all three pillars of sustainability — the environmental but also the social and socioeconomic implications of management decisions.”
Much closer to home, fisheries advocates in Atlantic Canada share a similar sentiment to their Scottish colleagues.
Last summer, the FFAW-Unifor reported that the abundance, distribution, size and condition of mackerel seen around the water of Newfoundland and Labrador was incredible.
“The loss of our commercial mackerel fishery when so much abundance is being witnessed each and every day around the province is certainly a tough pill to swallow,” said FFAW-Unifor President Dwan Street.
“We know that mackerel are spawning on the northeast coast. We are seeing a tremendous abundance of large mackerel, 16–18 inches in length, as well as small, or pencil mackerel. While harvesters are on or near the water every day and are seeing the changes, the department currently does not even have a mackerel scientist based in Newfoundland and Labrador. Batches of mackerel are not just being reported in a single bay, instead large batches, miles long, are being reported around the island day after day,” Street explained.
The union said that Atlantic mackerel is a transboundary stock, meaning that Canada shares responsibility with the United States for the stock.
“This year, the U.S. set a 3,200-tonne quota, while Canada set a 500-tonne total allowable catch (TAC). Since DFO closed the Atlantic mackerel fishery in 2022, the U.S. has continued to set quotas, totaling 15,000 tonnes from 2022 to 2025. Over that same period, the total amount of quota set by Canada has been around 1,000 tonnes.”
However, international quota discrepancies will continue into 2026.
In late December, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Faroe Islands and Iceland reached a deal for the 2026 Northeast Atlantic mackerel fishing season.
Following months of turmoil and uncertainty, combined with ICES recommending 70 per cent cuts to mackerel fishing for 2026, the nations have agreed on a 48 per cent year-over-year cut to mackerel quota.
The four coastal parties have set the 2026 total allowable catch for mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic at 299,010 tonnes, which is more than 100,000 tonnes higher than ICES’ recommendation of 174,357 MT.
The initial share of the quota, before a series of bilateral agreements were held, gave Norway 28.24 per cent, the U.K. 25.36 per cent, the Faroe Islands 13.35 per cent and 12.5 per cent for Iceland, which has been included on a mackerel-sharing deal for the first time.
However, as part of the agreement, Norway and the Faroe Islands get access to part of their share in U.K. waters, the Faroe Islands and Iceland get access to part of their share in Norwegian waters, and Iceland gets access to part of its quota in Faroese waters. To gain access to one another’s waters, coastal nations return some of their share.
That means the net share after the bilateral agreements gives the U.K. 30.55 per cent of the quota, Norway 26.4 per cent, the Faroe Islands 12 per cent and Iceland 10.5 per cent. That leaves 20.55 per cent for the E.U., Greenland and Russia, which are not part of the agreement.
